# Rolling Window Analysis — Z₁ on Ratings

| Width | Window | Z₁ Coef | SE | p-value | Sig | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1990-1994 | 15.46 | 6.83 | 0.0260 | ** | 101 | 0.659 |
| 5 | 1991-1995 | 21.29 | 6.07 | 0.0007 | *** | 115 | 0.693 |
| 5 | 1992-1996 | 26.65 | 5.65 | 0.0000 | *** | 131 | 0.719 |
| 5 | 1993-1997 | 25.32 | 5.90 | 0.0000 | *** | 146 | 0.713 |
| 5 | 1994-1998 | 62.68 | 22.72 | 0.0065 | *** | 159 | 0.721 |
| 5 | 1995-1999 | 36.80 | 32.97 | 0.2660 |  | 173 | 0.489 |
| 5 | 1996-2000 | 31.23 | 34.24 | 0.3629 |  | 193 | 0.523 |
| 5 | 1997-2001 | 37.99 | 25.30 | 0.1348 |  | 215 | 0.647 |
| 5 | 1998-2002 | -26.35 | 28.99 | 0.3644 |  | 242 | 0.441 |
| 5 | 1999-2003 | 11.51 | 22.83 | 0.6145 |  | 271 | 0.450 |
| 5 | 2000-2004 | 11.07 | 23.87 | 0.6433 |  | 301 | 0.463 |
| 5 | 2001-2005 | -19.09 | 23.43 | 0.4157 |  | 323 | 0.552 |
| 5 | 2002-2006 | 7.85 | 17.40 | 0.6520 |  | 339 | 0.602 |
| 5 | 2003-2007 | 3.79 | 13.46 | 0.7783 |  | 353 | 0.603 |
| 5 | 2004-2008 | 4.92 | 10.78 | 0.6481 |  | 364 | 0.593 |
| 5 | 2005-2009 | 10.68 | 9.57 | 0.2653 |  | 372 | 0.536 |
| 5 | 2006-2010 | 13.69 | 9.95 | 0.1699 |  | 379 | 0.542 |
| 5 | 2007-2011 | 18.66 | 14.73 | 0.2060 |  | 384 | 0.465 |
| 5 | 2008-2012 | 28.58 | 19.37 | 0.1408 |  | 386 | 0.460 |
| 5 | 2009-2013 | 21.24 | 17.15 | 0.2163 |  | 388 | 0.493 |
| 5 | 2010-2014 | 18.07 | 16.21 | 0.2659 |  | 390 | 0.504 |
| 5 | 2011-2015 | 11.49 | 14.83 | 0.4387 |  | 391 | 0.503 |
| 5 | 2012-2016 | 13.78 | 13.24 | 0.2986 |  | 392 | 0.486 |
| 5 | 2013-2017 | 8.86 | 10.77 | 0.4112 |  | 393 | 0.446 |
| 5 | 2014-2018 | 11.47 | 11.31 | 0.3114 |  | 394 | 0.501 |
| 5 | 2015-2019 | 15.25 | 10.70 | 0.1549 |  | 395 | 0.505 |
| 5 | 2016-2020 | 15.68 | 10.01 | 0.1183 |  | 395 | 0.503 |
| 5 | 2017-2021 | 14.30 | 9.29 | 0.1246 |  | 395 | 0.484 |
| 5 | 2018-2022 | 19.09 | 4.42 | 0.0000 | *** | 395 | 0.441 |
| 5 | 2019-2023 | 17.15 | 7.44 | 0.0216 | ** | 395 | 0.503 |
| 5 | 2020-2024 | 18.26 | 8.74 | 0.0375 | ** | 316 | 0.515 |
| 7 | 1990-1996 | 18.52 | 5.02 | 0.0003 | *** | 165 | 0.669 |
| 7 | 1991-1997 | 20.17 | 4.69 | 0.0000 | *** | 185 | 0.673 |
| 7 | 1992-1998 | 66.50 | 17.88 | 0.0003 | *** | 202 | 0.694 |
| 7 | 1993-1999 | 38.61 | 23.68 | 0.1045 |  | 220 | 0.536 |
| 7 | 1994-2000 | 24.91 | 24.81 | 0.3163 |  | 246 | 0.527 |
| 7 | 1995-2001 | 39.88 | 21.99 | 0.0708 | * | 279 | 0.616 |
| 7 | 1996-2002 | 18.35 | 25.25 | 0.4680 |  | 312 | 0.526 |
| 7 | 1997-2003 | 6.78 | 26.00 | 0.7944 |  | 342 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 1998-2004 | -25.40 | 23.60 | 0.2824 |  | 375 | 0.457 |
| 7 | 1999-2005 | 1.23 | 20.24 | 0.9517 |  | 410 | 0.519 |
| 7 | 2000-2006 | 9.05 | 17.63 | 0.6081 |  | 445 | 0.539 |
| 7 | 2001-2007 | -1.71 | 13.15 | 0.8967 |  | 472 | 0.553 |
| 7 | 2002-2008 | 6.64 | 10.40 | 0.5235 |  | 491 | 0.557 |
| 7 | 2003-2009 | 11.03 | 10.33 | 0.2859 |  | 505 | 0.554 |
| 7 | 2004-2010 | 14.07 | 10.03 | 0.1611 |  | 518 | 0.567 |
| 7 | 2005-2011 | 12.42 | 10.85 | 0.2531 |  | 528 | 0.491 |
| 7 | 2006-2012 | 15.35 | 12.34 | 0.2138 |  | 535 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2007-2013 | 23.94 | 14.30 | 0.0946 | * | 540 | 0.514 |
| 7 | 2008-2014 | 24.42 | 14.58 | 0.0945 | * | 542 | 0.509 |
| 7 | 2009-2015 | 19.43 | 13.83 | 0.1605 |  | 545 | 0.505 |
| 7 | 2010-2016 | 14.76 | 13.55 | 0.2763 |  | 548 | 0.506 |
| 7 | 2011-2017 | 15.76 | 12.66 | 0.2139 |  | 549 | 0.501 |
| 7 | 2012-2018 | 17.84 | 11.24 | 0.1131 |  | 550 | 0.483 |
| 7 | 2013-2019 | 11.92 | 9.28 | 0.1996 |  | 551 | 0.460 |
| 7 | 2014-2020 | 11.18 | 8.84 | 0.2066 |  | 552 | 0.472 |
| 7 | 2015-2021 | 14.71 | 8.54 | 0.0853 | * | 553 | 0.472 |
| 7 | 2016-2022 | 17.83 | 6.09 | 0.0036 | *** | 553 | 0.453 |
| 7 | 2017-2023 | 16.40 | 7.10 | 0.0212 | ** | 553 | 0.437 |
| 7 | 2018-2024 | 19.03 | 6.67 | 0.0045 | *** | 474 | 0.453 |
| 10 | 1990-1999 | 17.92 | 19.30 | 0.3540 |  | 274 | 0.457 |
| 10 | 1991-2000 | 20.12 | 18.91 | 0.2882 |  | 308 | 0.512 |
| 10 | 1992-2001 | 36.76 | 18.08 | 0.0428 | ** | 346 | 0.588 |
| 10 | 1993-2002 | 28.17 | 19.55 | 0.1505 |  | 388 | 0.522 |
| 10 | 1994-2003 | 11.01 | 19.80 | 0.5783 |  | 430 | 0.516 |
| 10 | 1995-2004 | 9.51 | 20.64 | 0.6453 |  | 474 | 0.500 |
| 10 | 1996-2005 | 2.48 | 19.49 | 0.8988 |  | 516 | 0.542 |
| 10 | 1997-2006 | 9.54 | 17.90 | 0.5944 |  | 554 | 0.545 |
| 10 | 1998-2007 | -4.56 | 13.02 | 0.7264 |  | 595 | 0.521 |
| 10 | 1999-2008 | 7.63 | 10.59 | 0.4713 |  | 635 | 0.509 |
| 10 | 2000-2009 | 9.70 | 10.24 | 0.3441 |  | 673 | 0.502 |
| 10 | 2001-2010 | 10.90 | 9.99 | 0.2758 |  | 702 | 0.520 |
| 10 | 2002-2011 | 9.84 | 10.37 | 0.3427 |  | 723 | 0.520 |
| 10 | 2003-2012 | 14.32 | 11.34 | 0.2070 |  | 739 | 0.538 |
| 10 | 2004-2013 | 14.19 | 11.23 | 0.2067 |  | 752 | 0.541 |
| 10 | 2005-2014 | 17.10 | 10.74 | 0.1118 |  | 762 | 0.526 |
| 10 | 2006-2015 | 15.20 | 10.49 | 0.1478 |  | 770 | 0.520 |
| 10 | 2007-2016 | 18.29 | 11.14 | 0.1010 |  | 776 | 0.513 |
| 10 | 2008-2017 | 20.44 | 11.81 | 0.0840 | * | 779 | 0.503 |
| 10 | 2009-2018 | 19.11 | 11.17 | 0.0874 | * | 782 | 0.511 |
| 10 | 2010-2019 | 18.43 | 10.92 | 0.0920 | * | 785 | 0.511 |
| 10 | 2011-2020 | 16.54 | 9.99 | 0.0981 | * | 786 | 0.504 |
| 10 | 2012-2021 | 18.62 | 8.92 | 0.0371 | ** | 787 | 0.453 |
| 10 | 2013-2022 | 13.79 | 5.53 | 0.0129 | ** | 788 | 0.404 |
| 10 | 2014-2023 | 15.04 | 6.41 | 0.0193 | ** | 789 | 0.424 |
| 10 | 2015-2024 | 15.92 | 6.64 | 0.0168 | ** | 711 | 0.433 |

*Sup-F breakpoint: 2001 (F=22.06, p=0.0000)*